Inaugural Networks

Presidential inaugural speeches in the US provide a good indication of the forthcoming political agenda. There has been a lot of research dedicated to this subject, however most of it focuses on keyword frequency analysis, which makes it difficult to trace the change in political agenda over the years. The reason is that the public political discourse is quite predictably dominated with such notions as “people”, “nation”, “world”. What’s interesting, however, is to detect the moments when the new notions are introduced into the political agenda, as well as to trace the change in relationships between the terms. This is where text network analysis can be quite useful, so Nodus Labs created a special report for The Guardian newspaper based on the US presidents inauguration speeches from Nixon’s 1969 to Obama’s 2013 address. 

The analysis used the method for text network analysis. The basic premise of this approach is that every word is represented as a node and their co-occurrence within the same context is represented as an edge in the network. After a series of transformations (performed by Textexture software developed by Nodus Labs) the graph is produced, which is then aligned according to Force Atlas algorithm. The nodes (words) that are connected (co-occur within the same context) are pulled together, while the nodes that are not connected are pushed. The resulting aligned graph gives a very good representation of the major semantic fields present within the text. Furthermore, community detection algorithms are applied to the resulting network, sorting the nodes (words) into the different groups according to how interconnected they are to one another. Every community is represented with a different color. As a result, if two words co-occur often together inside the same text they will be positioned next to each other on the graph and also belong to the same community (and, thus, have the same color on the graph). These communities represent the topics inside the text. Finally, the nodes are ranked according to their betweenness centrality measure: the bigger the node, the more different communities it belongs to.

It’s worth noting that such approach is very different from so-called “tag clouds”. Tag clouds show the most frequently mentioned words and they rarely position these words according to their proximity within the text. Therefore, one can get a general idea of the vocabulary inside the text, but it’s very hard to have a sense of the meaning that is produced using this vocabulary. Text network visualization, on the other hand, emphasizes both the most frequently mentioned words, as well as the relationships between them, making it much easier to understand what the text is about. Furthermore, it can also detect the topics inside the text, making it a much more useful tool for improving text comprehension and providing a much more useable interface for text navigation.

Bush, 2001:

Bush,  2005:

Quite a generic agenda at first sight, however, Bush was the first one to introduce the notion of “time” and use it to motivate certain policies. It’s all about the Now: “In all of these ways, I will bring the values of our history to the care of our times.” Not surprising that the “story” is also such an important concept in his speech: it’s full of short stories. In 2005, after the re-election is over, Bush is running the second term, probably thanks to his emphasis on “freedom” and “liberty” – a trick that always worked in the US and that was successfully employed by Reagan in his second term (see above).

Obama, 2009:

Obama, 2013:

The master of rhetorics, Obama combines the best of his predecessors in this inauguration speech. No wonder the “word” has such high relevance in his speech – it refers to the moments Obama is quoting someone else. In 2013’s speech the “time” and “require” probably relates to the fact that Obama had to respond to all the criticism that something had to be done immediately about the state of US economy and politics – and he successfully addressed these concerns.

Source:

http://noduslabs.com/cases/presidents-inaugural-speeches-text-network-analysis/

See more, about the text network analysis:
http://noduslabs.com/research/pathways-meaning-circulation-text-network-analysis/

Can Social Media Become the Saviour of Democracy ?

An article in Nature claims to have proven the  direct impact of  social media on political activity. Researchers at the University of Carolina along with people from Facebook run a gigantic experiment.

On Nov. 2, 2010, the day of the nationwide Congressional elections, nearly every Facebook member who signed on — 61 million in all — received a nonpartisan “get out the vote” message at the top of the site’s news feed. It included a reminder that “today is Election Day”; a link to local polling places; an option to click an “I Voted” button, with a counter displaying the total number of Facebook users who had reported voting; and as many as six pictures of the member’s friends who had reported voting. The results: 340,000 additional votes nationwide! Pretty amazing, but how can we be sure these people would not have voted by themselves?

Two randomly chosen control groups, of 600,000 Facebook members each, did not receive the pictures. One group received just the “get out the vote” message; the other received no voting message at all.By examining public voter rolls, the researchers were able to compare actual turnout among the groups. They determined that the message showing friends who had voted was directly responsible for 60,000 more votes nationwide and indirectly responsible for 280,000 that were spurred by friends of friends — what they called “social contagion” effect.

Significantly if not surprisingly, the voting study showed that patterns of influence were much more likely to be demonstrated among close friends, suggesting that “strong ties” in cyberspace are more likely than “weak ties” to influence behavior. It also found an indirect impact from the messages: friends of friends were influenced as well.

Fun fact, they also discovered that about 4 percent of those who claimed they had voted were not telling the truth.Because only about 1 percent of Facebook users openly state their political orientation, the researchers said they could not determine whether political leanings had any influence on social networking and voting behavior.Past studies have shown that a variety of methods for mobilizing potential voters have a disappointing effect. Knocking on doors is the most effective technique; e-mail is one of the least.

CNN's War On Cyber Terrorism - A Fictional Drama Set in the Situation Room

In February 2010 the cable network ran a live simulation under the name 'We Were Warned - Cyber Shockwave", where Wolf Blitzer guided viewers through a fictional scenario of digital terrorism.

To avoid a War Of the Worlds-like panic, CNN made it very clear, that is was only a product of fiction; but how far were they from the truth? A situation like this could easily happen tomorrow: a Russian computer infects smarthphones via the application 'March Madness', and the virus goes viral within a few hours. Soon it shuts down communication channels, power networks, and due to the blackouts, telecommunication and traffic get shut down as well. Hospitals have only 12 hours left on their backup generators, and the governments hands are tied, the president has no other choice but to declare martial law.

You can watch the whole show on YouTube, or read the transcript on the CNN homepage.

What CNN is trying to reenact, is the 'War Room', reserved for the President of The United States, that comes with a bunch of military personel and a group of advisers (probably a red phone too), for situations involving national security and requiring military action. The most infamous depiction of this roundtable was in Stanley Kubrick's Dr.Strangelove, accompanied by a brilliant performance of Peter Sellers. Entertainment however, was not the only goal of CNN, since their team included experts like the former director of the CIA General Michael Hayden among other high ranking security experts and former advisers.

The event was organised by the Bipartisan Policy Center, but the meaning behind it goes further than politics.  We have reported earlier, that closely linked systems, like the world food trade network, can serve as transmitters for certain viruses, causing a rapid failure of the whole system. Take any countries online network, and you get the same result. One computer is enough to infect and eventually take down the whole system. In 2010 researchers from Boston published a paper in the scientific journal Nature, that pointed out the Achilles heal of strongly interconnected networks. The failure of one point in the system can take down all the others, so the bigger the network is, the more vulnerable it gets.

Hooked already? Read on about the networks of networks on ScienceNews!