Is football really a simple game?! The hidden networks behind Bayern's success!

The infographic was created by Avalanche. CLICK FOR FULL SIZE

With the power of network visualization, dynamics of football games can be understood better than ever. Maven7’s analyst team is a huge fan of sports (check out our last analysis about the chances of the Hungarian water-polo team at London Olympics), especially football. 

As everybody knows it, "football is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win". So then why do so many people admire this simple form of entertainment? Why do dozens of analysts try to predict who will win a certain game or championship? Why is betting a huge business? The answer is as simple as football, because this game is not simple at all! Behind every pass, attack and goal, human dynamics have a strong impact. Network Analysis can give a new approach to understanding team dynamics during football games. 

Our recent infographic shows the hidden networks of two finalists of Champions League’s 2013. Let’s face the big question; can network science provide the answer why Bayern won and not Dortmund? 

If you look at the pictures, similarities and differences are easily noticeable. Network structures and patterns resemble each other because of the same line-up structure. Two defenders (greens) had strong mutual pass connections at both teams, but Dortmund focused on the right and Bayern on the left back. Teams have preferred defensive midfielders - Schweinsteiger and Gündogan, they were the top choice to pass to in midfield. OK, so both teams are German and both have same line-ups, but what isthe difference then?

Why did Bayern win?

Dortmund’s midfielder, Reus was the preferred player to pass to from the attacking midfielders. The penalty that Dortmund received also came from a situation after a pass to Reus. 

At the attacking midfield, Bayern is more active on the wings, and their whole network is not that centralized as Dortmund’s. Bayern’s midfield played in a better cooperation; their network shows more mutual connections, and Ribery’s supportive role on the left wing makes the whole attacking part very successful. Unfortunately, Dortmund’s attacking midfield has no mutual connection, and the whole midfield has only one as well. In comparison; Bayern’s attacking midfield has mutual connection between Robben and Ribery, and the midfield also has 3 mutual connections (Schweinsteiger - Ribery, Müller – Robben, Ribery – Martinez), which may show stronger cohesion in the midfield. 

Also, the midfield players’ performance of the two teams indicates their teams’ performance. Schweinsteiger played and passed more actively and punctual (87 tries, 73 times successful – 84%) than Gündonan (56 tries, 31 times successful – 62%), and while Bayern had altogether 640 passes and their efficiency was 72%, Dortmund had only 448 passes with 60% efficiency. 

An interesting fact is, that those attacks, which started from the goalkeeper, are more likely happening by the players of Dortmund. In general, Dortmund’s defense played a more attacking role; while Dante passed mostly to the back, Boateng passed to the front. 

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Manchester City vs Liverpool: Passing network analysis

At the beginning of February, Manchester City drew 2-2 with Liverpool at the Etihad, so a football loving blog decided to take a look at the match from a network point of view, resulting in the following research. We have already reported about something similar regarding basketball.

The positions of the players are loosely based on the formations played by the two teams, although some creative license is employed for clarity. It is important to note that these are fixed positions, which will not always be representative of where a player passed/received the ball. Only the starting eleven is shown on the pitch, as the substitutes weren’t hugely interesting from a passing perspective in this instance. Only completed passes are shown. Darker and thicker arrows indicate more passes between each player. The player markers are sized according to their passing influence, the larger the marker, the greater their influence. The size and colour of the markers is relative to the players on their own team i.e. they are on different scales for each team.

In the reverse fixture, Yaya Touré and De Jong were very influential for City but Touré was away at the African Cup of Nations, while De Jong joined Milan shortly after that fixture. Their replacements in this game, Barry and Garcia, were less influential, although Barry had the strongest passing influence for City in this match, with Milner second. The central midfield two, Lucas and Gerrard, were very influential for Liverpool and strongly dictated the passing patterns of the team. They both linked well with the fullbacks and wider players, while Lucas also had strong links with Suárez and Sturridge. Certainly in this area of the pitch, Liverpool had the upper hand over City and this provided a solid base for Liverpool in the match.

Similarly to the Arsenal game, Liverpool showed less of an emphasis upon recycling the ball in deeper areas. Instead, they favoured moving the ball forward more directly, with Enrique often being an outlet for this via Reina and Agger. Liverpool’s fullbacks combined well with their respective wide-players, while also being strong options for Lucas and Gerrard. Strurridge was generally excellent in this match and was more influential in terms of passing than in his previous games against Norwich and Arsenal, combining well with Suárez, Lucas and Gerrard.

At least based on the past few games, Liverpool have shown the ability to alter their passing approach with a heavily possession orientated game against Norwich, followed up by more direct counter-attacking performances against Arsenal and Manchester City. The game against City was particularly impressive as this was mixed in with some good control in midfield via Lucas and Gerrard, which was absent against Arsenal. How this progresses during Liverpool’s next run of fixtures will be something to look out for.

Source: http://2plus2equals11.wordpress.com/2013/02/05/manchester-city-vs-liverpool-passing-network-analysis/